AGP Executive Report

Yemen War Escalates: Yemen’s internationally recognized government launched “Operation Dawn of Yemen” along the Red Sea coast, with Saudi-led air support including 100 fighter jets, as forces reported retaking Dhubab, Bab and Hadeid near Bab el-Mandeb while Houthis press toward Taiz. Horn of Africa Diplomacy: Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia signaled a new regional alliance in Alamein, aiming to shape security across the Horn as Ethiopia remains a key missing name in their joint statement. Djibouti Football Crisis: Police occupied the Djibouti Football Federation headquarters as club presidents moved to oust FDF president Souleiman Waberi, triggering a standoff over the legitimacy of an extraordinary general assembly. Maritime Piracy Update: Pakistan’s foreign minister confirmed the last three surviving crew members of hijacked MT Honour 25 were rescued and flown to Addis Ababa, with travel to Karachi expected soon, after earlier returns of injured sailors and the remains of three colleagues. China’s Overseas Reach: China operationalized a new air military facility in Laos at Ban Keun, adding to its growing overseas footprint that began with Djibouti. Digital Skills Push in Djibouti: Djibouti is exploring a partnership with Wingu Africa to expand digital skills training for young people, with a joint task force planned.

Yemen Escalation: Iran-backed Houthis seized Turbah on the Taiz–Aden road, threatening supply routes to Taiz as Saudi Arabia’s coalition says it launched a major air campaign with 100 fighter jets and “air protection” over Bab el-Mandeb. Djibouti & Red Sea Pressure: The fighting is driving more people to flee inside Yemen and pushing thousands toward Djibouti, while renewed risk around Bab el-Mandeb keeps regional shipping and corridor costs in the spotlight. China Overseas Reach: China officially began operating a joint air support and training center in Laos, adding to its overseas military footprint that already includes Djibouti. Horn of Africa Diplomacy: Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said Mogadishu is open to Ethiopia using two or three Somali ports for trade under Somali sovereignty, but only after a formal request. Ethiopia–Eritrea Tensions: Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled Eritrean diplomats, as the northern conflict deepens and fears of wider instability grow. Sports: Djibouti’s rivals in the Olympic qualifiers are set as Ghana awaits the Mauritius–Djibouti winner, with the Black Queens naming their squad for the next round. Maritime Incident: Pakistan’s injured crew and the remains of three sailors from the MT Honour 25 hijacking were repatriated via flights involving Ethiopia and Djibouti-linked diplomacy.

Red Sea Access Diplomacy: Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud says Mogadishu is ready to let landlocked Ethiopia use two or three Somali ports for imports and exports, but only under Somali sovereignty and after Addis Ababa submits a formal request—while Ethiopia’s officials keep pushing “sovereign” Red Sea access rhetoric. Horn Security & Diplomacy: Ethiopia escalated its standoff with Eritrea by closing its Asmara embassy and expelling 10 Eritrean diplomats; Eritrea retaliated by cutting ties, as fighting in northern Ethiopia raises fears of wider regional spillover. Maritime Incident—MT Honour 25: Four injured Pakistani sailors and the remains of three killed crew members from the hijacked MT Honour 25 departed Addis Ababa for Karachi on Ethiopian Airlines, following Puntland’s operation that freed the tanker and captured pirates. Djibouti-Linked Trade Pressure: As Ethiopia nears WTO accession, a new report warns high transport and border costs—much of it routed through the Djibouti corridor—could blunt the benefits of membership. Regional Military Footprint: China’s new joint support and training center in Laos is framed by analysts as part of broader power projection, echoing the wider security competition affecting the region. Sports: Ghana’s Black Queens named a squad for the 2028 Olympic qualifier against Mauritius, with two first senior call-ups and a return from injury.

Maritime Repatriations: Pakistan has begun sending home the injured and the dead from the hijacked MT Honour 25 off Somalia, with four injured sailors and the remains of three colleagues departing Addis Ababa for Karachi on Ethiopian Airlines flight ET 694, after Puntland forces freed the tanker and captured 16 pirates. Horn of Africa Diplomacy: Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic ties after explosions in Addis Ababa and a drone strike on defense headquarters, with Ethiopia expelling 10 Eritrean diplomats and Eritrea retaliating by cutting relations. Regional Security & Shipping: The UN Security Council will hold closed talks on northern Ethiopia tensions, as analysts warn the crisis could spill into a wider regional conflict affecting Red Sea stability. China’s Military Footprint: China’s new joint air support and training center in Laos is framed by experts as part of Beijing’s long-term power projection, adding to its overseas logistics presence that already includes Djibouti. Trade & Djibouti Corridor: Ethiopia’s WTO accession nears a final phase, but a WTO warning says high trade costs—often tied to port and border logistics through Djibouti—could limit the benefits. Local Economy Snapshot: Djibouti topped Africa for estimated monthly net salary in a new ranking, ahead of South Africa and Seychelles.

Red Sea Security: EU’s Aspides mission is still short on warships to escort merchant traffic through Bab el-Mandeb, with Italy saying it will add ships only if other Europeans match the effort—an issue that matters for Djibouti since much of Ethiopia’s fuel and cargo still flows through its corridor. Horn of Africa Flashpoint: Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic ties after explosions in Addis Ababa and a drone attack on defense sites, with Ethiopia expelling 10 Eritrean diplomats and Eritrea retaliating—raising fears the northern conflict could spill into a wider regional confrontation. Ethiopia–Tigray Fighting: Ethiopian forces say they have recaptured Mekelle’s Alula Aba Nega Airport as fighting intensifies across Tigray and neighboring regions. Somalia Piracy Aftermath: Pakistan says arrangements are underway to repatriate the remains of three sailors killed during the MT Honour 25 operation, while four survivors are expected to arrive in Karachi. Regional Humanitarian Pressure: UN warns Yemen hunger is worsening, with three out of four families struggling for food as fighting disrupts supplies. Djibouti–Ethiopia Trade/Infrastructure: Scholars say the Damerjog–Dewele petroleum products pipeline will boost Ethiopia’s fuel security and deepen economic ties with Djibouti.

Ethiopia–Eritrea Rift: Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats within 48 hours after explosions in Addis Ababa, and Eritrea retaliated by severing ties—raising fears the northern conflict could spill into a wider Horn of Africa front. Red Sea Security: As Yemen’s Houthis press attacks and UN warnings mount, shipping risk is climbing again around Bab el-Mandeb, with war-risk premiums rising and Israel and regional partners facing new maritime pressure. Yemen Hunger Crisis: The UN and WFP warn that in government-held areas, about 3 in 4 households can’t meet basic food needs as fighting displaces families and cuts aid access. Djibouti Link—Fuel Pipeline: Scholars say the Damerjog–Dewele petroleum products pipeline (Djibouti to Ethiopia) will boost fuel security and deepen economic ties, with capacity set to exceed one million cubic meters. Somalia Piracy—Pakistan Returns: Four Pakistani sailors rescued from the MV Honour 25 hijacking are due to arrive in Karachi, while three bodies are being repatriated—Pakistan says its embassy in Djibouti helped coordinate the operation.

Ethiopia–Eritrea Diplomatic Break: Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats over alleged threats to national security; Eritrea responded by severing ties and warning of “negative corollaries,” as fighting in Tigray and spillover into Afar and Amhara intensifies. Red Sea Shipping Pressure: War-risk insurance for Saudi-linked tankers at Yanbu and further south has jumped sharply after Houthi advances near Bab el-Mandeb, raising costs for the Ethiopia corridor that still relies heavily on Djibouti. Yemen Food Crisis Deepens: The UN World Food Programme says three in four households in parts of Yemen are going hungry as fighting disrupts markets and aid access, with Yemen importing most food. Somali Piracy Aftermath: Pakistan says four sailors freed from the hijacked MT Honour 25 are due to arrive in Karachi Saturday, while the remains of three killed crew members are also being repatriated; three survivors remain aboard. China’s Growing Military Footprint: China opened new overseas defense facilities in Laos, including an air force training and support center, signaling further expansion of its logistics and training presence.

Ethiopia Crisis Deepens: Explosions shook Addis Ababa as fighting between Ethiopia’s federal forces and a widening coalition of armed groups flared across Tigray, Amhara and Afar, with reports of heavy civilian casualties around Alamata and communications disruptions. Diplomatic Fallout: Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled Eritrean diplomats; Eritrea retaliated by severing ties, while Ethiopia and Egypt also expelled diplomats in a tit-for-tat escalation. Red Sea Pressure: Alarm grew over reported links between Yemen’s Houthis and Somalia’s Al-Shabab, raising fears for Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping; Italy signaled it could boost its EU naval role if other countries do. Somalia Regional Politics: In Jigjiga, Somali Regional State President Mustafe Cagjar was reelected and named a new 27-member executive council. Djibouti Corridor Costs: Analysis highlighted how Bab el-Mandeb disruptions keep Ethiopia heavily dependent on the Djibouti corridor, turning risk into immediate fuel and goods costs. Piracy Aftermath: Pakistan said survivors from the MT Honour 25 hijacking were moved to Garowe for care, while bodies of three Pakistani crew members will be repatriated.

Ethiopia–Eritrea Tensions: Ethiopia closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled Eritrean diplomats, signaling a hard line as fighting in the north widens and accusations of Eritrean involvement in Afar grow. Northern Ethiopia Fighting: Explosions hit Addis Ababa overnight as drones and strikes are blamed for attacks near military sites, while hospital sources say at least 52 civilians were killed around Alamata in Tigray during three days of heavy fighting. Regional Security Spillover: Analysts warn the renewed Ethiopia conflict could pull in neighbors, as Addis accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing Tigrayan forces, while Djibouti remains tied to the stakes of the corridor. Djibouti–Somalia Diplomacy: Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh in Djibouti to discuss security and stability in the Horn. Maritime Incident: Pakistan’s Foreign Office said bodies of three Pakistani sailors killed during the MT Honour 25 tanker rescue off Somalia will be repatriated, with survivors taken ashore at Bandar Beyla. Energy & Trade Corridor: Ethiopia’s push for connectivity continues alongside major projects, including the Ethiopia–Djibouti fuel pipeline plans and Dangote’s new East Africa refinery in Kenya.

Horn of Africa Security: Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud arrived in Djibouti for high-level talks with President Ismail Omar Guelleh, focusing on security, economic development, and regional stability as tensions rise after renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s north. Ethiopia Conflict: Heavy clashes around Alamata in Tigray have killed at least 52 civilians over three days, with government forces reportedly taking the town and pushing toward Mekelle; MSF says it suspended work at Alamata hospital as war-wounded surged. Red Sea Shipping Risk: The Houthis’ expanding reach around Bab el-Mandeb is raising fears for Djibouti and Ethiopia’s corridor, while Yemen’s health system is warned to be near collapse as fighting escalates. Maritime Incident: Pakistan’s Foreign Office says it is making “every possible effort” to repatriate bodies of three Pakistani sailors killed during the Puntland operation to recover the hijacked tanker MT Honour 25, with injured crew receiving care and survivors brought ashore at Bandar Beyla. Regional Diplomacy: Somalia’s president also met Ethiopia’s PM Abiy Ahmed before the Djibouti stop, signaling a push to manage cross-border security concerns.

Somalia-Djibouti Diplomacy: Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud met Djibouti President Ismail Omar Guelleh in Djibouti to deepen security, economic and political cooperation, as regional tensions rise after talks in Ethiopia and a planned stop in Egypt. Ethiopia Conflict Spillover: Fighting around Alamata in Ethiopia’s Tigray has killed 52 civilians over three days, while MSF suspended work at Alamata hospital as war-wounded surged and access to care deteriorated. Red Sea Shipping Pressure: Hapag-Lloyd says it will add Red Sea sailings again, but Bab el-Mandeb risk remains a concern for Ethiopia’s Djibouti corridor. Piracy and Repatriation: Pakistan’s Foreign Office confirmed three Pakistani sailors died during the Puntland operation to recover hijacked tanker MT Honour 25, with four others injured and survivors brought ashore at Bandar Beyla. China’s Military Reach: China opened a joint air force training and support centre in Laos, adding to its overseas footprint that already includes a base in Djibouti. Yemen Humanitarian Alarm: WHO warns Yemen’s health system is near breaking point as cholera, dengue and measles outbreaks worsen amid escalation, with thousands displaced and facilities damaged.

Ethiopia–Djibouti Energy Deal: Ethiopia and Djibouti, with the Dangote Group, are pushing ahead with a 120-kilometer refined fuel pipeline from Damerjog to Dewele, aiming to cut the fuel trip from about five days to one and easing reliance on thousands of tanker trucks. Red Sea Pressure from Yemen: The Houthis have expanded control and logistics along Yemen’s western coast near Bab el-Mandeb, raising shipping risks and pushing war-risk insurance higher for Red Sea routes. UN Yemen Diplomacy: UN envoy Hans Grundberg wrapped up talks in Cairo with Egypt and the Arab League, while also meeting Houthi negotiators to try to stop further escalation. Humanitarian Strain in Yemen: WHO warns Yemen’s health system is nearing a “breaking point,” citing thousands of casualties, major displacement, damaged facilities, and rising disease fears as thousands of Yemenis keep crossing into Djibouti. Regional Spillover Fears: Fighting in northern Ethiopia is intensifying around towns like Alamata, with Addis Ababa accusing Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing armed groups—fueling worries the conflict could spread across the Horn. Djibouti Logistics at Stake: With Ethiopia still heavily dependent on the Djibouti corridor, Bab el-Mandeb instability is directly affecting Ethiopia’s supply chain costs and planning. Maritime Security: Puntland forces say they retook the hijacked tanker Honour 25 from pirates, with multiple crew deaths reported before the operation began.

Afreximbank Push for Djibouti Infrastructure: Afreximbank says it will finance the second phase of Djibouti’s Damerjog jetty and pipeline/storage push, adding about US$130m, plus a US$150m facility for industrial roads—framed as a boost to East African trade and energy logistics. Ethiopia–Djibouti Fuel Corridor Under Strain: As renewed fighting spreads in northern Ethiopia, Djibouti urged de-escalation, warning the conflict threatens regional stability and integration; analysts also note Ethiopia’s heavy reliance on the Djibouti corridor as Red Sea risk rises. Ethiopia Conflict Escalation: Ethiopian government forces and allied fighters claim they took Alamata in southern Tigray, while Addis accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing opposition groups—claims rejected by the accused. Red Sea War-Risk Costs Jump: War-risk insurance for Saudi-linked tankers calling at Red Sea ports has surged, with premiums rising sharply after Bab el-Mandeb security concerns. Yemen Health System Near Collapse: WHO warns Yemen’s health services are nearing a “breaking point,” citing thousands of casualties and displacement, with over 3,600 Yemenis crossing into Djibouti since Sept. 10. U.S. Deportations Legal Update (Djibouti Link): The Supreme Court fast-tracked Trump’s third-country deportation fight; last year, rights groups said some migrants were held in Djibouti. China–Laos Military Training Opens: China launched a joint support and aviation training center in Laos, while also operating a logistics base in Djibouti.

Ethiopia–Tigray Conflict: Fighting has flared again in northern Ethiopia as the TPLF presses offensives into Afar and Amhara, while federal-aligned forces say they’ve taken the strategic town of Alamata; reports also point to drone strikes hitting Tigray TV and major telecom disruptions, raising fears of a return to the 2020–2022 war. Djibouti Diplomacy & Humanitarian Pressure: Djibouti urged de-escalation in Ethiopia and, at the UN, appealed for international help as Yemen-linked refugee arrivals surge—nearly 3,000 arriving in days and UNHCR warning numbers could climb further. Red Sea Security & Shipping Costs: With Houthi advances tightening control around Bab el-Mandeb, analysts warn Djibouti and Egypt face the most immediate economic exposure, while Ethiopia’s reliance on the Djibouti corridor leaves it highly vulnerable. Regional Energy Deal: Aliko Dangote and Ethiopian officials backed a $660m Ethiopia–Djibouti fuel pipeline, aiming to cut delivery times and strengthen energy security. International Military Posture: The U.S. Maryland National Guard is set to deploy about 300 soldiers to support counterterrorism operations at Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti. Sports: Ghana’s Black Queens were drawn to face Mauritius in the 2028 Olympic qualifiers.

Red Sea Pressure on Djibouti’s Doorstep: Djibouti urged de-escalation as fighting in northern Ethiopia threatens stability across the Horn, with Djibouti warning the renewed conflict could undermine regional integration. Ethiopia–TPLF Frontline Updates: Pro-government forces said they took Alamata in southern Tigray, while reports also describe heavy clashes across Afar and Amhara and renewed fears of a return to the 2020–2022 war. Regional Accusations: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Sudan and Egypt of backing TPLF-linked forces; Sudan denied the claims. Bab el-Mandeb Risk: Analysts say Houthi control around Bab el-Mandeb could create lasting pressure on shipping, raising war-risk costs and hitting Ethiopia’s Djibouti corridor. EU Naval Gap: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called for more warships for the Red Sea mission, warning current resources may not match the threat level. Djibouti Humanitarian Strain: Djibouti appealed for international support as thousands of Yemenis arrive, with UNHCR reporting nearly 3,000 crossings to Djibouti in under a week. Energy Deal for the Corridor: Aliko Dangote backed a $660m Ethiopia–Djibouti fuel pipeline, aiming to cut delivery times and strengthen energy security.

Northern Ethiopia Conflict: Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea and Sudan of backing Tigray rebels as fighting flared again, with the TPLF seizing airports and pushing toward Afar and Amhara; a humanitarian source said rebels captured Erebti and displaced at least 150,000 people in Afar, while a drone hit the Tigrai TV headquarters in Mekelle. Humanitarian Pressure in the Horn: The UN warned the renewed Ethiopia clashes could disrupt aid and threaten the 2022 peace deal, as Djibouti urged de-escalation and called for dialogue. Yemen Refugee Surge to Djibouti: UNHCR said nearly 4,000 people crossed from Yemen to Djibouti recently, and Djibouti’s foreign minister told the UN it faces mounting pressure, with arrivals expected to reach 10,000 without more support. Djibouti’s Energy Build-Out: Djibouti began construction of a Damerjog terminal with 375,000 m³ storage and near 5 million tonnes annual processing to supply Ethiopia. Regional Trade Reliance: Ethiopia still routes about 96.7% of seaborne trade through Djibouti, underscoring how corridor disruptions can quickly hit landlocked Ethiopia.